Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
